Game Strategy

  • How to utilize a pitchers arsenal, understanding what statistics correlate to winning, and better insight to statistics that put a team in the best chance to score and prevent runs.

Utilizing a Pitcher's Arsenal

  • Using Clustering to Find Pitch Subtypes and Effective Pairings by Gregory Dvorocsik, Eno Sarris, and Joseph Camp
  • https://s2.smu.edu/~camp/pubs/dvorocsik_sabr_analytics_2020.pdf

  • "For right-handed starters: The beneficial CU1 and SI3 and CU3 and SI3 pairings were thrown by Aaron Nola, Adam Wainwright, Felix Hernandez, Scott Feldman, Mike Pelfrey, and Kyle Hendricks. Hendricks had an ERA+ of 170, and Nola’s CU1 had a 17.72% swinging strike rate, 7.05% higher than the average CU1, and his CU3 had 20.35% swinging strike rate, 8.06% higher than that subtype by itself." -Dvorocsik, Sarris, and Camp

  • CU refers to Curveball and SI referes to sinker in the text above.

Evaluating a stolen base to run value

  • Evaluating a stolen base to run value
  • Stolen base attempts: an algorithm for allocation run value by Greg Rybarczyk (June 2013)
  • "So, with a runner on first, a successful steal of second base with none out changes the RE from 0.858 to 1.073 (the run value for a man on second, none out), a change of +0.215 runs. If the attempt is unsuccessful and the runner is thrown out, the change in RE is from the initial 0.858 to a final value of 0.263 (the run value for bases empty, one out), a net change of -0.595 runs. With one out, the play values are +0.144 runs for success, and -0.411 runs for failure. With two outs, the values are +0.097 and -0.221 runs." -Rybarczyk
  • https://tht.fangraphs.com/stolen-base-attempts-an-algorithm-for-allocating-run-value/

Game Strategy